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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 12 February 15
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE INCHED DOWN 1.44% IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal bench mark price this month to US$ 62.92 pe ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY DRAGS ON, AS OWNERS ARE LOOKING FOR LOWER PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship owners appear to be waiting for lower prices in their dealings with Asian shipyards, as the dry bulk market is at historical lows. According t ...
Wednesday, 11 February 15
DRY BULK MARKET REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE : STABILIZING CAPE MARKET HARDLY HELPED SENTIMENT
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market remained under pressure last week, while the stabilizing Cape market hardly helped sentiment.
Greece based s ...
Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
IRON ORE MARKET TO REMAIN OVERSUPPLIED IN 2015: PRICE FORECAST $70/T - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com: With January witnessing the price of iron ore falling to its lowest levels since May 2009, Roger Emslie, Principal Metals & ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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