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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 14 February 15
SHALE GAS AND TIGHT OIL ARE COMMERCIALLY PRODUCED IN JUST FOUR COUNTRIES - EIA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The United States, Canada, China, and Argentina are currently the only four countries in the world that are producing com ...
Friday, 13 February 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SHOWS 10% DECLINE
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 13 February 15
SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED SHIP OWNERS SQUEEZED OUT OF THE MARKET ON CRASHING DRY BULK MARKET AND EUROZONE CRISIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Financing issues have started to tighten the noose in the throats of small and medium-size ship owners, who were already facing problems over the p ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
CAPESIZE: THE BEST DESCRIPTION FOR THE MARKET IS, FLAT - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The handy and supra market is also being affected by the marginal volume of activity in the commodity sales. We see a small upturn in the T ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
DRY BULK OWNERS SCRAP MORE VESSELS, AS MARKET REACHES HISTORICAL LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has reached historical lows this week, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) now trading at levels below operating expense levels for ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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