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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 17 June 15
PANAMAX RATE AVERAGED $22.82 PMT IN THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF JUNE FOR THE GRAIN ROUTE FROM SANTOS, BRAZIL, TO QINGDAO, CHINA - INTERMODAL
This year, Brazil will be exporting a record 96 million tons of soybean crop and starting in August the country will begin shipping a second corn c ...
Tuesday, 16 June 15
MERS: POTENTIAL CHARTERPARTY IMPLICATIONS - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
South Korea's current outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) has been the focus of much international at ...
Tuesday, 16 June 15
Q3 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP PRICE DOWN 50 CENTS OVER PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains month on month but declined week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was clim ...
Tuesday, 16 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS: PRICES MOVED UP ON THE WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 rose month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ 1.70 ...
Monday, 15 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP: Q1'16 DELIVERY CLOSED 1.14% LOWER THAN Q4'15 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 1.10 per MT (2.47%) month over month to US$ 45.67 per mt. The swap ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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