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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 19 June 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO LAST WEEK; CONTINUES TO BE DOWN FROM LAST YEAR
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.4 million short ...
Friday, 19 June 15
INDONESIA'S COAL-TRAFFICKING PROBLEM REQUIRES IMPARTIAL INQUIRY - JAKARTA GLOBE
Indonesia, the leading supplier to the seaborne thermal coal market, produces 420 million tons of coal per year, according to its official tally.
...
Thursday, 18 June 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: LOWEST FLEET GROWTH IN 10 YEARS MAY NOT PROVE ENOUGH AS DEMAND IS NOT KEEPING PACE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The demand side of things in the dry bulk market seems unable to keep pace with even the slightest fleet growth, a sign of the demise that the indu ...
Thursday, 18 June 15
THE FAR EAST HANDYSIZE, HANDYMAX, SUPRAMAX MARKET REMAINED STEADY LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off on Friday (last week) noting small gains on the back of stronger performance in the Panamax segment, w ...
Thursday, 18 June 15
MERCATOR'S KAMSARMAX FIXED WITH CLEARLAKE
COALspot.com: Mercator Lines (Singapore) Limited, a leading Indian-owned international dry bulk shipping company focused on markets such as India, ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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