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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 12 July 15
SHIPYARD NOT LIABLE FOR ENGINE ROOM FIRE CAUSED BY OIL LEAKAGE - BIRCH WINDAHL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A Danish vessel owner requested a Danish shipyard to undertake repairs and maintenance works on its vessel. An agreement ...
Saturday, 11 July 15
MAJOR IRANIAN GAS EXPORTS WILL TAKE AT LEAST FIVE YEARS - FITCH
Iran has the long-term potential to become one of the world's top gas producers, thanks to its 34 trillion cubic meters (tcm) of natural gas re ...
Friday, 10 July 15
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS POSITIVE MOMENTUM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept its positive momentum over the course of the past few days, thanks to Panamax gains. During yesterday’s session ...
Friday, 10 July 15
U.S PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY TOTALED AN ESTIMATED 14.1 MMST WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.1 million short ...
Thursday, 09 July 15
CPP MARKET : POSITIVE IN THE SHORT TERM - GEORGE VASTARDIS
Despite the traditionally quieter summer period, the clean tanker market has so far experienced healthy activity especially East of Suez. Increased ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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