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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 15 July 15
ANY FUTURE IRAN OIL DEAL WILL BOOST SUPPLY FUNDAMENTALS WITH TANKER OWNERS HOPING FROM TEHRAN TO QUICKLY BOOST ITS PRODUCTION
With the Greek “Euro-drama” apparently over, at least for now, Iran’s oil deal still remains elusive, with any potential agreemen ...
Tuesday, 14 July 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS MAINTAIN OVERALL NEGATIVE TONE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.02 per MT (-2.23%) month over month to US$ 44.68 per mt. The swap ...
Tuesday, 14 July 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DECLINE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.47 (2.82%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Monday, 13 July 15
THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SOAR 23 PER CENT TO 24.08 MILLION TONNES AT 12 MAJOR INDIAN PORTS
Import of thermal coal jumped 23 per cent to 24.08 million tonnes at 12 major ports in the first quarter of the fiscal, even as the government cont ...
Monday, 13 July 15
THE DRY BULK MARKET CLOSED ON A POSITIVE TONE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Despite Greece crisis and turmoil in the stock market across the world , the freight market overall was firm and up in all segments t ...
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Showing 2926 to 2930 news of total 6871 |
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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