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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 23 August 15
SHIPPING FREIGHT RATES FALL SHARPLY ON EXCESS SUPPLY AND LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: The BDI continued to soften and was down 5.78 pct and falls back below 1000 points this week.
The cape Index lost 17.25 per cent ...
Friday, 21 August 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION VOLUME FALLS 8.7% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.3 million shor ...
Friday, 21 August 15
GLOBALCOAL TO LAUNCH ONLINE TRADING OF PHYSICAL MET COAL ON 13 OCTOBER
On 13 October 2015, globalCOAL will launch an online platform for the physical procurement and trade of high quality hard coking coal delivered FOB ...
Thursday, 20 August 15
COAL PRICES FALL TO 12-YEAR LOWS AS CHINA, INDIA JOIN DEMAND SLOWDOWN - REUTERS
Coal futures have fallen to 12-year lows, hit by soaring production and a slowdown in global buying, including from India and China which until rec ...
Wednesday, 19 August 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS CONTINUE FLAT TREND LINE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was decli ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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