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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 25 August 15
INDONESIA MINERS' NPLS TO RISE FURTHER, BANK RISKS BUILD - FITCH
The NPLs of Indonesian mine and mine services companies are likely to rise further in the short term, says Fitch Ratings, after reaching multi-year ...
Tuesday, 25 August 15
MINER'S EARNINGS DROP ON FALLING COAL PRICES; Q2'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 52.23 A TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 24 August 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS HIT FRESH LOW, DIPPING BELOW $42 A TON
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 2.20 per MT (-5.01%) month over month to US$ 41.70 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 24 August 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 48.65 PMT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.89 (3.74%) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 24 August 15
IS CHINA'S STEEL EXPORTS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE FREIGHT MARKET? - BIMCO
No, it’s not enough, you will need lower Chinese iron ore production too in order to keep growing imports of iron ore into China that will su ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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