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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctivel ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
INDONESIAN COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM POSTS POSITIVE PERFORMANCE DURING FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian publicly listed and state controlled coal miner PT. Bukit Asam has announced that, the company’s coal sales up 8 per ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
LOWER DEMAND HIT Q1' 16 INDONESIA COAL SWAPS
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 1.88 (-4.71%) per t ...
Tuesday, 20 October 15
SHIPBROKER SEES CAPESIZE RATES EASILY REACHING $25,000/DAY BY YEAR-END : NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The future course of the dry bulk market has been troubling market participants for quite some time now, as the “elusive” freight rate ...
Tuesday, 20 October 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS SINK INTO RED THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- White Energy Company Limited
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