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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 28 October 15
Q2'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SEES FURTHER DECLINES
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gained week over week and declined month over month.
The Q4 swap was d ...
Wednesday, 28 October 15
BDI INCREASE TOOK PLACE SOLELY ON THE BACK OF CAPESIZE PERFORMANCE, BUT........ - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off the week noting a small improvement which nonetheless failed to lift sentiment, not only because ...
Tuesday, 27 October 15
Q1'16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINE 6 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $2 per ton (4.66%) month over month to US$ 40.93 per ton. The swa ...
Monday, 26 October 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.5 PER CENT LESS COAL IN SEPTEMBER, COMPARED TO AUGUST LOADING
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.161 billi ...
Monday, 26 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSE DOWN 4.3% AS DEMAND CONCERNS WEIGH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US$ 1.48 (3.02 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity sw ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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