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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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