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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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