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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 12 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The recent Coronavirus outbreak in China has led to a global health emergency by World Health Organization and it is yet to be seen how long the ph ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
CHANGES IN LNG MARKET COULD UNDERCUT PLANS FOR NEW JAPANESE COAL PLANTS - CLYDE RUSSELL
Reuters: Clyde Russell
The collapse in the spot price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia is a short-term phenomenon that may wel ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY SEES FREIGHT MARKETS IN A COMPLETE STATE OF COLLAPSE AS DEMAND GETS PARALYZED DUE TO CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK - ALLIED
With China and the world still trying to contain the effects and come to terms with the Wuhan novel coronavirus outbreak, the shipping industry see ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
WORLD STEEL PRODUCTION IN 2019 - BANCHERO COSTA
In a worrying development, global steel production slowed down considerably in the fourth quarter of 2019. In the final 3 months of 2019, total cru ...
Sunday, 09 February 20
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA STRUGGLED, A 50,000DWT SHIP FIXING A COAL RUN FROM EAST KALIMANTAN TO INDIA AT $2,000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market endured another dreadful week of calamitous rate level falls, as the usual season low Q1 period combined with rece ...
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Showing 1141 to 1145 news of total 6871 |
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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