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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 15 February 20
AFRAMAX: A MORE POSITIVE ATTITUDE EXISTED IN THIS SECTOR WITH RATES IMPROVING ON ALL ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
VLCC
The market in the Middle East was unmoved this week, with Chinese refiners continuing to slow imports, allied with the impact of the Coron ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
A 56,000DWT VESSEL WAS CONCLUDED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Riding the downward momentum of the previous week, the market was always going to be hard pressed to make any sort of revival. With mu ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION WILL TOTAL 595 MMST IN 2020, DOWN 14% FROM 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019.
Lower ...
Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between Chin ...
Friday, 14 February 20
KOWEPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.275 MILLION TONS OF MIN. 5,600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co. Ltd (KOWEPO). as a representative of five Korean Gencos has issued an international tender for total 1,275,00 ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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