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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 02 June 20
THE HISTORIC DECLINE OF US COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
The first commercial power plant in the US was Thomas Edison’s coal-fired Pearl Street station in lower Manhattan, which started operating in ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
COAL INDIA'S MAY SALES DRIVEN SHARPLY LOWER BY SLUMP IN POWER DEMAND - REUTER
Coal India’s sales fell 23.3% in May as utilities refrained from purchases amid record stockpiles and tepid demand because of a nationwide lo ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
TUAH TURANGGA AGUNG RECORDED 4.54 MILLION TONS OF COAL SALES IN THE FIRST FOUR MONTHS OF 2020
PT United Tractors Tbk through its subsidiary, PT Tuah Turangga Agung recorded 4.54 million tons of coal sales in the first four months of 2020, up ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
SOURING SINO-AUSTRALIA TRADE RELATIONS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Cooling relations between the commodity powerhouses of China and Australia may point to trade troubles ahead when the world emerges from the Covid- ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.86 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.95 points Monday, down 0.86 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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