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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 04 June 20
DON'T FORGET THE REAL PURPOSE OF RISK ASSESSMENTS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
When doing a risk assessment, we often overcomplicate it and forget its real purpose.
Rather than ensuring that crew ...
Wednesday, 03 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Once again shipping is about to venture into uncharted waters and before the challenges of the past decade are forgotten, shipowners will have to o ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
KOSPO LOOKING FOR 80000 MT OF 4200 NCV COAL FOR JULY
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) 4200 NCV coal for 12 - 21, July ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL MINER BUMI RESOURCES Q1 OUTPUT UP 5% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s largest coal miner Bumi Resources posted a 5% increase in first-quarter output at 20.8 million tonnes, the company said in a stat ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.86 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.95 points Monday, down 0.86 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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