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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from return ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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