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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
Friday, 12 March 21
BATTERIES ARE REPLACING COAL NOT GAS - IEEFA
No amount of government subsidies can halt gas’s decline
Batteries are replacing coal not gas.
Today the early ...
Friday, 12 March 21
RENEWABLES SHOULD BE FOCUS OF VIETNAM’S DRAFT PDP8, NOT COAL AND GAS - IEEFA
Evidence was clear to inform the next stage of Vietnam’s power development
Vietnam’s recently published draft power deve ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
U.S. TO PRODUCE 581 MMST IN 2021, UP 8% FROM 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 581 MMst in 2021, 42 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to rise by a furth ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during the first months of 2021, we have come across a new era in which Owners chose the shipyards to repair their ...
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Showing 621 to 625 news of total 6871 |
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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