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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 01 June 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.02 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 160.06 points Monday, down 0.02 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 01 June 21
BUMA PRODUCED 11.4 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 4Q 2020, 5% LOWER COMPARED TO 12.2 MILLION TONNES IN 4Q 2019
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. presents its newsletter with consolidated financial and operating results that include its primary and wholly-owne ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
PAKISTAN IS PLANNING TO END COAL IMPORTS, WORSENING OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH AFRICAN COAL - IEEFA
The growing and irreversible risks being faced by South African coal exporters
As Thungela Resources’ CEO attempts to talk up ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
G7 COAL FINANCE EXIT AND WHY IT MATTERS FOR INDIA - IEEFA
While India doesn’t rely on export credit finance to fund new coal plants, there are material implications
The commitment by the Group o ...
Saturday, 29 May 21
SKULD’S IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP EXPERIENCE
More than a year has passed since the International Maritime Organization (IMO) mandate for the 0.50% sulphur cap for marine fuel (MARPOL Annex VI) ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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