We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Saturday, 05 June 21
IT'S TIME FOR THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION TO CHAMPION RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE PHILIPPINES, NOT NUCLEAR OR FOSSIL GAS - IEEFA
Fossil gas and nuclear investments risk locking in costly, outdated infrastructure for the long-term
The United States has spent the ...
Friday, 04 June 21
NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS IN INDIA WILL BE ECONOMICALLY UNVIABLE - IEEFA
Coal capacity additions face major stranded asset risk
Much of India’s 33 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power capacity currently under co ...
Thursday, 03 June 21
JUNE HBA IS HITTING ABOVE $100 AND SETTLED AT ITS HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER 2020
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for June 2021 settles at US$ 100.33 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
INDONESIA RV WAS DOWN TO LOW/MID $20,000S DAY FOR PANAMAX/KAMSARMAX WITH DELIVERY S CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
Panamax
A softening week in the Pacific basin with rates under a downward pressure mainly caused by the oversupply of tonnage in the area, said ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
EUROPEAN UNION'S IRON ORE IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union (27) is currently the fourth largest importer of iron ore in the world, after China, Japan, and South Korea.
Euro ...
|
|
|
Showing 561 to 565 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
|
| |
| |
|
