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Tuesday, 16 June 20
HIGHER IRON ORE PRICES OFFSET CORONAVIRUS-DRIVEN PRODUCTION RISK - FITCH RATINGS
 Lower iron ore production in Brazil, resulting from rising coronavirus infections, should only marginally affect the cash flow of Vale and other global mining companies due to higher prices, says Fitch Ratings. More than 10% of Vale’s production was affected last week when a local court suspended operations at its Itabira Complex due to employees testing positive for the virus.
Iron ore prices declined earlier this year due to demand concerns but later rebounded and are being supported by supply constraints caused by Vale’s 2019 dam accident and weather-related production disruptions. Prices increased to above USD100/dry metric ton (dmt) due to the news regarding the suspension.
Vale maintained its 2020 production guidance at 310 metric tons (mt) to 330mt with production expected to resume once all employees are tested and the company ensures no infected workers are working at the facilities. CRU Group believes it will be increasingly difficult for Vale to meet volume guidance considering the suspension, weak production in the Northern System and the effect heavy rainfall had on output at the start of 2020. The potential for additional infections increases employee absenteeism and production risk, as the number of people available to work in mines and processing plants falls, and other municipalities could take similar actions to stem the spread of the virus.
Material Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) shortcomings, particularly in the areas of executing strategy and maintaining the well-being of employees, constrain Vale’s ‘BBB-’ credit ratings with a Stable Outlook. However, Vale is a low-cost producer with a leading market position, abundant reserves, and high-grade iron that commands a market premium, which reduces credit implications.
Fitch projects Vale will generate more than USD14 billion of EBITDA in 2020, assuming iron ore prices average USD75/dmt. FCF should be about USD5.0 billion, assuming capex is about USD4.7 billion and dividends are USD3.0 billion. Vale’s 2020 net debt/EBITDA is projected to be around 0.5x. These forecasts compare with USD17 billion of EBITDA, USD7 billion of FCF and net debt/EBITDA of 0.3x for the LTM ended March 31. Forecasts could prove conservative, given the rise in iron ore prices.
Similar dynamics apply to Anglo American’s operations at Minas-Rio. Fitch used for its rating case the bottom of existing production guidance of 22 million tonnes – 24 million tonnes and a price assumption of USD75/tonne in 2020 for the 62% Fe benchmark cost and freight (CFR) China price. The company has scheduled a one month production stoppage for inspection of its slurry pipeline for second-half 2020. If there were any pandemic-related disruptions in the coming months it might be possible to use the slot to re-schedule the maintenance work. Overall, based on production figures to date, upside from actual prices realized and material Brazilian real depreciation, there is unlikely to be any cash flow downside for the earnings outlook from a temporary disruption, if it occurs at Minas-Rio, to the existing rating case.
CRU’s forecast for benchmark 62% Fe fines CFR China is USD80/dmt as of May 2020. Iron ore demand in China remains robust as rising steel prices and margins for hot rolled coil producers above 10% encourage steel production. CRU expects strong steel production ahead of the wet season in southern China, which typically slows demand from the construction sector. Steel mills in China continue to operate with exceptionally low inventories and recent data shows mill inventories are declining further while port stocks remain steady at 108mt.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 11 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
OPEC+ CUTS EXTENSION TO ACCELERATE MARKET REBALANCING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2020: The OPEC+ agreement to extend by one month record oil production cuts should accelerate market rebalancing, Fitc ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast to the economic projections of the past two years for the first half of 2020, the oil & gas industry and those involved in it faced ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.19 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.71 points Monday, down 0.19 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 09 June 20
BUNKER SUPPLY CONTRACTS - KEY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE BUYER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Regardless of whether a buyer purchases fuel directly from physical suppliers or via brokers or traders and whether sale ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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