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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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Showing 41 to 45 news of total 6871 |
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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