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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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Showing 36 to 40 news of total 6871 |
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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