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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 29 May 20
KOMIPO ON BEHALF FIVE KOREAN GENCOS INVITED COAL BIDS FOR 5,700 & 4999 NCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co.,Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf five (5) Korean Gencos has Issued an International Tender for tota ...
Friday, 29 May 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: NO QUICK RECOVERY FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET AS COVID-19 DIGS DEEPER
The outlook is poor for dry bulk, as the negative demand shock and overcapacity come together to send rates to multi-year lows, even a return to wo ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
COVID-19: A FORCE MAJEURE EVENT? - KYPRIANOU
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
While seeing the unexpected COVID-19 outbreak expanding worldwide and the first cases being identified in Cyprus, the com ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
OIL DEMAND RECOVERED BY 20% IN MAY AGAINST APRIL: RUSSIAN ENERGY MINISTER - TASS
Oil demand remains at a low level but the demand in May increased by 20% against April, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said, cited by the ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Earlier in May, China’s top leaders convened for the annual National People's Congress, following over two months of delays due to the co ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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