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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 29 May 20
KOMIPO ON BEHALF FIVE KOREAN GENCOS INVITED COAL BIDS FOR 5,700 & 4999 NCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co.,Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf five (5) Korean Gencos has Issued an International Tender for tota ...
Friday, 29 May 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: NO QUICK RECOVERY FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET AS COVID-19 DIGS DEEPER
The outlook is poor for dry bulk, as the negative demand shock and overcapacity come together to send rates to multi-year lows, even a return to wo ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
COVID-19: A FORCE MAJEURE EVENT? - KYPRIANOU
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
While seeing the unexpected COVID-19 outbreak expanding worldwide and the first cases being identified in Cyprus, the com ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
OIL DEMAND RECOVERED BY 20% IN MAY AGAINST APRIL: RUSSIAN ENERGY MINISTER - TASS
Oil demand remains at a low level but the demand in May increased by 20% against April, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said, cited by the ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Earlier in May, China’s top leaders convened for the annual National People's Congress, following over two months of delays due to the co ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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