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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 02 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.86 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.95 points Monday, down 0.86 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Monday, 01 June 20
SUPRAMAX: IN SOUTH EAST ASIA RATES TRADED SIDEWAYS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A sober end to the week, with the market seemingly ready for the weekend. After a steady week of rate declines a small flurry of Atlan ...
Friday, 29 May 20
COVID-19: COAL SUPPLY BY CIL TO POWER SECTOR DIPS 22% TO 32 MT IN APRIL DUE TO DEMAND SLUMP - PTI
Over 95% of CIL’s production comes from its 171 open cast mines.
The supply of coal to the power sector by state-owned Coal In ...
Friday, 29 May 20
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE WARNS OF HIT FROM COAL PRICE SLUMP - REUTERS
Australia’s New Hope Corp Ltd said on Thursday that a sudden drop in thermal coal prices and lower output from its Queensland operations woul ...
Friday, 29 May 20
GOVT MAY LAUNCH COAL BLOCKS AUCTION PROCESS UNDER COMMERCIAL MINING ON JUN 11 - PTI
The Centre is likely to launch the process of coal blocks auction under commercial mining on June 11 and around 50 mines are expected to go under t ...
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Showing 941 to 945 news of total 6871 |
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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