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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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