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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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