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Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
 OPEC released its much anticipated April monthly report.
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, recording their deepest monthly drop since the global financial crisis in 2008. The ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic were the main driving force, resulting in unprecedented worldwide oil demand shock and massive sell-offs in the global oil markets, amid a significant crude surplus. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value was down by $21.61, or 38.9%, m-o-m, to stand at $33.92/b, the lowest monthly value since September 2003. ICE Brent declined by $21.75, or 39.2%, m-o-m, to average $33.73/b, while NYMEX WTI fell $20.09, or 39.8%, to average $30.45/b. The term structure of all three crude benchmarks – ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and DME Oman – moved to a super contango in March, and money managers cut speculative net long positions.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a severe recession in 2020, declining by 1.5%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Following tender signs of improvement at the beginning of the year, expectations for global economic growth were quickly burdened by the strong impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 4.1% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 6.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 3.9% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.5%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20 and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to grow by only 2.0%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 2.4% in 2020, following growth of 1.0% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 0.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.4% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices. As risk remains to be skewed to the downside, further revisions may be warranted going forward.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth forecast for 2019 is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d, compared with the previous month’s assessment. For 2020, the world oil demand growth forecast is revised lower by 6.9 mb/d, to a historical drop of around 6.8 mb/d. The contraction in the 2Q of this year is expected to be around 12 mb/d, with April witnessing the worst contraction at about 20 mb/d. The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in China in 1Q20, and its negative impact on transportation and industrial fuels in the country, has since spread globally and is now affecting oil demand growth in most other countries and regions, with an unprecedented impact on global oil demand, transportation fuels in particular. As a result, OECD oil demand is revised lower by 3.7 mb/d to decline by 4.0 mb/d, while non-OECD oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 3.2 mb/d to contract by 2.9 mb/d for the year. Considering latest developments, and the large uncertainties going forward, downward risks remain significant, suggesting possibility of further adjustments, especially in the 2Q, should new data and further developments warrant revisions.
World Oil Supply Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2019 is revised down by 0.01 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now estimated at 1.98 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to decline by 1.50 mb/d, a downward revision of 3.26 mb/d from the previous projection. The impact of COVID-19, ensuing global economic recession and oil demand shock, will also lead to supply disruptions. Benchmark oil prices plunge prompted companies to respond by cutting capital expenditure to the lowest in 13 years. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US was revised down by 1.05 mb/d to show a decline of 0.15 mb/d y-o-y. The supply growth for the 10 non-OPEC countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation has also been adjusted lower. Oil supply in 2020 is now forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 will grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In March, OPEC crude oil production increased by 821 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.61 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Global refinery margins globally showed mixed performance during March. In the US, margins weakened as strength in gasoil/diesel was offset by losses in gasoline cracks, as complex margins came close to negative territory. In Europe, product markets strengthened slightly at the middle of the barrel, supported by a fall in feedstock prices. An already relatively tight global gasoil market saw support from output cuts and continued critical industrial activities for essential services and goods amid COVID-19. However, in Asia, margins eased towards the end of the month, pressured by a weaker top of the barrel, despite healthy gasoil and fuel oil crack spreads.
Tanker Market
The tanker market has been one of few segments of the oil industry that enjoyed positive momentum in March. A sudden surge in crude exports boosted demand for VLCCs, which pulled up Suezmax rates as well. Dirty spot freight rates declined mid-month before climbing again as the market was supported by high demand for tankers as charterers rushed to place cargoes amid a collapse in demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Increased options for time-chartering, including for floating storage, underscored the build-up of excess supply of crude and products in the market. For the month, dirty spot rates averaged 69% higher m-o-m in March. Clean tanker spot freight rates rose 12% m-o-m, as the need to find homes for excess product supplies supported the market.
Trade
Crude and product trade flows have been notably affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the uncertain outlook going forward, although there has been some lag in how the various regions have been affected. US crude exports had a strong start to the year, averaging 3.5 mb/d in 1Q20, a gain of 0.8 mb/d over the same quarter last year, as the US remained a net liquids exporter for the seventh-consecutive month. Meanwhile, China’s crude imports averaged 10.5 mb/d over the first two months of 2020, declining from December as disruptions caused by COVID-19 led to some imports being diverted or delayed. Product trade was also affected, with imports and exports averaging 0.3 mb/d lower in the first two months of the year compared to December. Official data showed India’s crude imports increasing slightly in February, although some estimates show a higher jump as the country took in some discounted cargoes diverted from China. India’s crude and product trade is likely to be broadly impacted in March by a government-ordered lockdown.
Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 5.6 mb, m-o-m, in February to stand at 2,945 mb. This was 64.3 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 24.7 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks fell by 6.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 11.7 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 5.0 days, m-o-m, in February to stand at 72.7 days. This was 11.5 days above the same period in 2019, and 10.3 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for March showed that US total commercial oil stocks increased by 8.2 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 1,922 mb. This was 31.8 mb, or 1.7%, above the same period a year ago, and 16.2 mb, or 0.8%, lower than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks rose by 25.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 16.8 mb, m-o-m.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.9 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings, the demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is expected at 24.5 mb/d, around 5.4 mb/d lower than the 2019 level, though this remains heavily subject to uncertainty surrounding current market conditions.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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