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Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
 OPEC released its much anticipated April monthly report.
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, recording their deepest monthly drop since the global financial crisis in 2008. The ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic were the main driving force, resulting in unprecedented worldwide oil demand shock and massive sell-offs in the global oil markets, amid a significant crude surplus. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value was down by $21.61, or 38.9%, m-o-m, to stand at $33.92/b, the lowest monthly value since September 2003. ICE Brent declined by $21.75, or 39.2%, m-o-m, to average $33.73/b, while NYMEX WTI fell $20.09, or 39.8%, to average $30.45/b. The term structure of all three crude benchmarks – ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and DME Oman – moved to a super contango in March, and money managers cut speculative net long positions.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a severe recession in 2020, declining by 1.5%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Following tender signs of improvement at the beginning of the year, expectations for global economic growth were quickly burdened by the strong impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 4.1% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 6.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 3.9% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.5%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20 and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to grow by only 2.0%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 2.4% in 2020, following growth of 1.0% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 0.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.4% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices. As risk remains to be skewed to the downside, further revisions may be warranted going forward.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth forecast for 2019 is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d, compared with the previous month’s assessment. For 2020, the world oil demand growth forecast is revised lower by 6.9 mb/d, to a historical drop of around 6.8 mb/d. The contraction in the 2Q of this year is expected to be around 12 mb/d, with April witnessing the worst contraction at about 20 mb/d. The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in China in 1Q20, and its negative impact on transportation and industrial fuels in the country, has since spread globally and is now affecting oil demand growth in most other countries and regions, with an unprecedented impact on global oil demand, transportation fuels in particular. As a result, OECD oil demand is revised lower by 3.7 mb/d to decline by 4.0 mb/d, while non-OECD oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 3.2 mb/d to contract by 2.9 mb/d for the year. Considering latest developments, and the large uncertainties going forward, downward risks remain significant, suggesting possibility of further adjustments, especially in the 2Q, should new data and further developments warrant revisions.
World Oil Supply Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2019 is revised down by 0.01 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now estimated at 1.98 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to decline by 1.50 mb/d, a downward revision of 3.26 mb/d from the previous projection. The impact of COVID-19, ensuing global economic recession and oil demand shock, will also lead to supply disruptions. Benchmark oil prices plunge prompted companies to respond by cutting capital expenditure to the lowest in 13 years. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US was revised down by 1.05 mb/d to show a decline of 0.15 mb/d y-o-y. The supply growth for the 10 non-OPEC countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation has also been adjusted lower. Oil supply in 2020 is now forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 will grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In March, OPEC crude oil production increased by 821 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.61 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Global refinery margins globally showed mixed performance during March. In the US, margins weakened as strength in gasoil/diesel was offset by losses in gasoline cracks, as complex margins came close to negative territory. In Europe, product markets strengthened slightly at the middle of the barrel, supported by a fall in feedstock prices. An already relatively tight global gasoil market saw support from output cuts and continued critical industrial activities for essential services and goods amid COVID-19. However, in Asia, margins eased towards the end of the month, pressured by a weaker top of the barrel, despite healthy gasoil and fuel oil crack spreads.
Tanker Market
The tanker market has been one of few segments of the oil industry that enjoyed positive momentum in March. A sudden surge in crude exports boosted demand for VLCCs, which pulled up Suezmax rates as well. Dirty spot freight rates declined mid-month before climbing again as the market was supported by high demand for tankers as charterers rushed to place cargoes amid a collapse in demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Increased options for time-chartering, including for floating storage, underscored the build-up of excess supply of crude and products in the market. For the month, dirty spot rates averaged 69% higher m-o-m in March. Clean tanker spot freight rates rose 12% m-o-m, as the need to find homes for excess product supplies supported the market.
Trade
Crude and product trade flows have been notably affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the uncertain outlook going forward, although there has been some lag in how the various regions have been affected. US crude exports had a strong start to the year, averaging 3.5 mb/d in 1Q20, a gain of 0.8 mb/d over the same quarter last year, as the US remained a net liquids exporter for the seventh-consecutive month. Meanwhile, China’s crude imports averaged 10.5 mb/d over the first two months of 2020, declining from December as disruptions caused by COVID-19 led to some imports being diverted or delayed. Product trade was also affected, with imports and exports averaging 0.3 mb/d lower in the first two months of the year compared to December. Official data showed India’s crude imports increasing slightly in February, although some estimates show a higher jump as the country took in some discounted cargoes diverted from China. India’s crude and product trade is likely to be broadly impacted in March by a government-ordered lockdown.
Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 5.6 mb, m-o-m, in February to stand at 2,945 mb. This was 64.3 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 24.7 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks fell by 6.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 11.7 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 5.0 days, m-o-m, in February to stand at 72.7 days. This was 11.5 days above the same period in 2019, and 10.3 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for March showed that US total commercial oil stocks increased by 8.2 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 1,922 mb. This was 31.8 mb, or 1.7%, above the same period a year ago, and 16.2 mb, or 0.8%, lower than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks rose by 25.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 16.8 mb, m-o-m.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.9 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings, the demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is expected at 24.5 mb/d, around 5.4 mb/d lower than the 2019 level, though this remains heavily subject to uncertainty surrounding current market conditions.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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Showing 11 to 15 news of total 6871 |
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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