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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing challenging moments, markets have been violently disrupted and it will become even more visible later on that governments around the world will experience major shifts in their respective political and economic power.
As we have already witnessed, Brent prices are experiencing their lowest levels in 17 years, closing at $27.2 per barrel last Friday, whereas West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) closed at $23 per barrel. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the price of Brent, which is the international benchmark, “could dip as low as $20 per barrel and test operational stress levels”.
A week ago, Bank of America warned that the US is close to a new major recession due to the worldwide spread of the Covid-19. Simultaneously, oil producing countries keep on increasing their production at record levels amidst a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, after OPEC+ (OPEC and Russia) failed to come to a consensus over additional production cuts. Official selling prices lowered by as much as 20% have been also used as “weapons” in this price war.
At the moment, global demand for oil hovers around 100 million barrels per day. Yet, as consumption is gradually decreasing due to the tremendous economic shake of the COVID-19 and the subsequent containment measures, demand could possibly plunge an additional 20% according to some first estimations. The final outcome of this crisis still remains unknown; however, certain analysts reassure that some more optimistic scenarios are possible to play out. According to Andreas de Vries, advisor at Saudi Aramco, the successful containment policies against the Covid-19 pandemic and the implementation of stimulus packages could stem the secondary and tertiary effects on the economy.
The oil market status quo calls for an a pragmatic resolution aiming to terminate the price war. Nevertheless, a termination of the price war will not be able to push prices back to $60 plus per barrel, with levels around $40 seeming more realistic if major producers come to an agreement. As de Vries highlights, even in the best-case scenario, the average crude price will still remain considerably below what most producing countries need in order to successfully balance their respective budgets. Indeed, the extent of the virus containment measures that are currently being implemented will affect to a massive degree a number of sectors that are heavyweights for the economies of many of the producing nations, like tourism for example.
At the same time there is a growing number of voices that warns for a series of major economic consequences, with the worst-case scenario being a global economy devastated by a wave of continuous bankruptcies. We are seeing significant economic stimulus announced around the world, with the U.S. expected to reach soon a deal on a $2 trillion coronavirus aid, but the effectiveness of the implementation of these packages remains uncertain at this stage. A failure of these stimulus measures to support vital sectors of the economies around the world will lead to a prolonged crisis that could prove worse than the big downturn of 2008, but for now let’s remain reservedly optimistic and hope it doesn’t come to that.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of ...
Friday, 20 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 20 March 20
OIL PRICES COULD FALL BELOW ZERO: ANALYST - FOX BUSINESS
Plunging oil prices could be headed a lot lower – possibly below zero, according to one Wall Street analyst.
West Texas Interm ...
Friday, 20 March 20
84% OF FEBRUARY BUNKER SALES IN SINGAPORE ARE LOW-SULPHUR FUELS - BIMCO
Low-sulphur fuels accounted for 84% of total February sales in Singapore, slightly up from 83% in January. The sale of low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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