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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing challenging moments, markets have been violently disrupted and it will become even more visible later on that governments around the world will experience major shifts in their respective political and economic power.
As we have already witnessed, Brent prices are experiencing their lowest levels in 17 years, closing at $27.2 per barrel last Friday, whereas West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) closed at $23 per barrel. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the price of Brent, which is the international benchmark, “could dip as low as $20 per barrel and test operational stress levels”.
A week ago, Bank of America warned that the US is close to a new major recession due to the worldwide spread of the Covid-19. Simultaneously, oil producing countries keep on increasing their production at record levels amidst a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, after OPEC+ (OPEC and Russia) failed to come to a consensus over additional production cuts. Official selling prices lowered by as much as 20% have been also used as “weapons” in this price war.
At the moment, global demand for oil hovers around 100 million barrels per day. Yet, as consumption is gradually decreasing due to the tremendous economic shake of the COVID-19 and the subsequent containment measures, demand could possibly plunge an additional 20% according to some first estimations. The final outcome of this crisis still remains unknown; however, certain analysts reassure that some more optimistic scenarios are possible to play out. According to Andreas de Vries, advisor at Saudi Aramco, the successful containment policies against the Covid-19 pandemic and the implementation of stimulus packages could stem the secondary and tertiary effects on the economy.
The oil market status quo calls for an a pragmatic resolution aiming to terminate the price war. Nevertheless, a termination of the price war will not be able to push prices back to $60 plus per barrel, with levels around $40 seeming more realistic if major producers come to an agreement. As de Vries highlights, even in the best-case scenario, the average crude price will still remain considerably below what most producing countries need in order to successfully balance their respective budgets. Indeed, the extent of the virus containment measures that are currently being implemented will affect to a massive degree a number of sectors that are heavyweights for the economies of many of the producing nations, like tourism for example.
At the same time there is a growing number of voices that warns for a series of major economic consequences, with the worst-case scenario being a global economy devastated by a wave of continuous bankruptcies. We are seeing significant economic stimulus announced around the world, with the U.S. expected to reach soon a deal on a $2 trillion coronavirus aid, but the effectiveness of the implementation of these packages remains uncertain at this stage. A failure of these stimulus measures to support vital sectors of the economies around the world will lead to a prolonged crisis that could prove worse than the big downturn of 2008, but for now let’s remain reservedly optimistic and hope it doesn’t come to that.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 25 March 20
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IS CRUSHING GLOBAL GDP GROWTH - FITCH RATINGS
The coronavirus crisis is crushing global GDP growth according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO) ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
INDONESIA TO CANCEL RULES REQUIRING DOMESTIC SHIPS FOR COAL, PALM EXPORTS : REFINITIV
Indonesia's government will revoke rules requiring exporters of coal and palm oil to use domestic shipping companies for shipments, Coordinatin ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
JAN-FEB 2020, INDONESIA SHIPPED 64.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL, UP +3.4% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of calendar 2019, Indonesia exported 386.4 mln tonnes of coal, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This represents a ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
As countries around the world struggle to take back control of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic the global economy shuts down bit by bit, leaving only ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
THE TRIPLE SHOCK OF CORONAVIRUS IN SHIPPING: WILL IT LAST? - DREWRY
Transport capacity shortages, disruptions to supply chains and inability to plan since late January have been a dangerous combination. But will all ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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