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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s outcome is a psychological blow for the market, as the steep plunge in oil prices shows.
“And the market is now facing the spectre of unrestrained production once the current OPEC+ agreement expires in March.
“However, we do not think Saudi Arabia will push hard to lift their output in the northern hemisphere spring.
“Given weak demand and the likelihood this weakness will persist into the second quarter, it will be hard for any producer to increase their output sharply once the original production deal expires at the end of this month.”
Demand risks
She added: “One factor to bear in mind is that the plunge in demand we saw in Q1 was created by circumstances in China. The country’s coronavirus (Covid-19) containment measures have been far more stringent than those imposed anywhere else, and are not likely to be copied elsewhere.
“The lack of a production deal carries risk. This would become apparent if global economic growth weakens and oil demand continues to contract more sharply than expected thanks to the double whammy of coronavirus containment measures and falling GDP.”
Hittle said: “Our current projection sees global liquids demand fall by 2.7 million b/d year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, the first year-on-year decline on a quarterly basis since Q2 2009.
“It is the most severe decline since Q4 2008, the height of the 2008-2009 global economic crisis, which saw demand tumble by 2.8 million b/d year-on-year.”
Hittle said: “If the impact the coronavirus has had on global oil demand is sustained, then by the second half of the year we’d expect to see weaker GDP. This will have a far greater impact on oil demand than just temporary reductions in jet fuel and gasoline demand.
“A longer, sustained outbreak of coronavirus threatens to hit oil demand with a double whammy: already weak demand will soften further because of containment measures, and this will weaken GDP.”
What next?
What does this mean for OPEC and OPEC+? It would mean that the group would likely need to monitor economic indicators closely. It may even mean that they could be forced to call an emergency meeting during the second quarter.
She added: “A sustained bout of low oil prices will further reduce cash flow and investment into the US oil patch, causing further hits to Lower 48 production growth later this year. It takes at least six to nine months for reductions in spend to lead to lower oil production in the US Lower 48.
“In that time, their access to capital may be limited and their free cash flow badly hit.
“The only silver lining in a very dark cloud is for refining – the sector will be hit hard by weak demand, but it is at least saved from tightening crude differentials associated with a major cut in OPEC supplies.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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