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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s outcome is a psychological blow for the market, as the steep plunge in oil prices shows.
“And the market is now facing the spectre of unrestrained production once the current OPEC+ agreement expires in March.
“However, we do not think Saudi Arabia will push hard to lift their output in the northern hemisphere spring.
“Given weak demand and the likelihood this weakness will persist into the second quarter, it will be hard for any producer to increase their output sharply once the original production deal expires at the end of this month.”
Demand risks
She added: “One factor to bear in mind is that the plunge in demand we saw in Q1 was created by circumstances in China. The country’s coronavirus (Covid-19) containment measures have been far more stringent than those imposed anywhere else, and are not likely to be copied elsewhere.
“The lack of a production deal carries risk. This would become apparent if global economic growth weakens and oil demand continues to contract more sharply than expected thanks to the double whammy of coronavirus containment measures and falling GDP.”
Hittle said: “Our current projection sees global liquids demand fall by 2.7 million b/d year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, the first year-on-year decline on a quarterly basis since Q2 2009.
“It is the most severe decline since Q4 2008, the height of the 2008-2009 global economic crisis, which saw demand tumble by 2.8 million b/d year-on-year.”
Hittle said: “If the impact the coronavirus has had on global oil demand is sustained, then by the second half of the year we’d expect to see weaker GDP. This will have a far greater impact on oil demand than just temporary reductions in jet fuel and gasoline demand.
“A longer, sustained outbreak of coronavirus threatens to hit oil demand with a double whammy: already weak demand will soften further because of containment measures, and this will weaken GDP.”
What next?
What does this mean for OPEC and OPEC+? It would mean that the group would likely need to monitor economic indicators closely. It may even mean that they could be forced to call an emergency meeting during the second quarter.
She added: “A sustained bout of low oil prices will further reduce cash flow and investment into the US oil patch, causing further hits to Lower 48 production growth later this year. It takes at least six to nine months for reductions in spend to lead to lower oil production in the US Lower 48.
“In that time, their access to capital may be limited and their free cash flow badly hit.
“The only silver lining in a very dark cloud is for refining – the sector will be hit hard by weak demand, but it is at least saved from tightening crude differentials associated with a major cut in OPEC supplies.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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