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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s outcome is a psychological blow for the market, as the steep plunge in oil prices shows.
“And the market is now facing the spectre of unrestrained production once the current OPEC+ agreement expires in March.
“However, we do not think Saudi Arabia will push hard to lift their output in the northern hemisphere spring.
“Given weak demand and the likelihood this weakness will persist into the second quarter, it will be hard for any producer to increase their output sharply once the original production deal expires at the end of this month.”
Demand risks
She added: “One factor to bear in mind is that the plunge in demand we saw in Q1 was created by circumstances in China. The country’s coronavirus (Covid-19) containment measures have been far more stringent than those imposed anywhere else, and are not likely to be copied elsewhere.
“The lack of a production deal carries risk. This would become apparent if global economic growth weakens and oil demand continues to contract more sharply than expected thanks to the double whammy of coronavirus containment measures and falling GDP.”
Hittle said: “Our current projection sees global liquids demand fall by 2.7 million b/d year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, the first year-on-year decline on a quarterly basis since Q2 2009.
“It is the most severe decline since Q4 2008, the height of the 2008-2009 global economic crisis, which saw demand tumble by 2.8 million b/d year-on-year.”
Hittle said: “If the impact the coronavirus has had on global oil demand is sustained, then by the second half of the year we’d expect to see weaker GDP. This will have a far greater impact on oil demand than just temporary reductions in jet fuel and gasoline demand.
“A longer, sustained outbreak of coronavirus threatens to hit oil demand with a double whammy: already weak demand will soften further because of containment measures, and this will weaken GDP.”
What next?
What does this mean for OPEC and OPEC+? It would mean that the group would likely need to monitor economic indicators closely. It may even mean that they could be forced to call an emergency meeting during the second quarter.
She added: “A sustained bout of low oil prices will further reduce cash flow and investment into the US oil patch, causing further hits to Lower 48 production growth later this year. It takes at least six to nine months for reductions in spend to lead to lower oil production in the US Lower 48.
“In that time, their access to capital may be limited and their free cash flow badly hit.
“The only silver lining in a very dark cloud is for refining – the sector will be hit hard by weak demand, but it is at least saved from tightening crude differentials associated with a major cut in OPEC supplies.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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