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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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