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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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