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Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate the IMO 2020 regulations. As the implementation date for the 0.5% sulphur cap approaches, the U.S. EIA expects that the swing in petroleum product pricing will be most acute in 2020 and the effects on prices will be moderate after that. However, the regulations will inevitably affect petroleum supply, demand, and trade flows on a long-term basis while shipowners, operators and charterers around the world are carefully preparing marine fuel supplies ahead.
As already extensively analysed operators of vessels have a few options, from switching to a lower-sulphur fuel or installing scrubbers to even switching to nonpetroleum-based fuels, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG). To enable a prosperous transition the industry demands increased on-board operational expertise and detailed product knowledge both on the supplying and the receiving vessel. Originally MGO was declared the primary winner since most of the bunker products did not met the sulphur content limit of 0.5%. However, with less than two months ahead of the implementation, it seems that the scale of the MGO demand swipe will not be as great as expected. In its place, very-low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) has been developed as a dark horse to challenge MGO as a stand-in for high-sulfur fuel oil, with a 3.5% sulfur limit, when the switch is activated.
VLSFO is already available in various locations across Asia, Middle East, Africa and the Americas as of mid-October, while it will be made available to additional ports during November and December. Even though demand up until recently has not been as high we are now seeing both supply and demand rapidly increasing. During the first half of October, supply of VLSFO surpassed demand in many areas and as argued by suppliers, this is because ship-owners that initially wanted to start bunkering VLSFO postponed their purchases for November and December. The market disturbance caused by the transition to IMO 2020 is apparent as the supply side of HSFO has begun running down stocks. Furthermore, tank barges that have been stowing HSFO are being taken out of service to be cleaned and get readied for VLSFO or MGO. Concurrently, suppliers and traders are reluctant to substitute HSFO stocks as they anticipate rapidly declining demand towards the end of 2019. This reduced supply capacity comes at a time when shipping still needs fuel, and the vast majority of bunker demand is still for HSFO.
To conclude, the transition to the 0.50% sulphur limit will cause disruption and more volatility than usual for a while but the market will eventually adapt as it always does. Worldwide, the shipping industry was primarily sceptical about the quality of VLSFO, but as 2020 approaches confidence for VLSFO grows among market members. Operators are projected to lean towards the lower cost option that will replace the 3.6 million barrels per day of HSFO that the shipping industry currently consumes. There is still speculation rather than solid fact about the price differential between high sulphur fuel and VLSFO price in the beginning of 2020, with some analysts predicting a potential range of $40-$200 between the two grades.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 22 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA SAW INCREASED ACTIVITY AND STRONGER NUMBERS BEING CONCLUDED; INDONESIAN ROUNDS REMAINED FIRM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Another week of gains as the Atlantic basin continues to be pressurised on tonnage and Brazilian cargoes keep up a steady flow. The Ca ...
Thursday, 18 July 19
WORLD TRADE IN HARD COAL ROSE BY 4.7% IN 2018 - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
World Trade in Hard Coal Rose by 4.7% in 2018
Hard Coal Can Prevent Stress in the Electric Power System in Germany
• Sharp decl ...
Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the res ...
Tuesday, 16 July 19
KING COAL RULES IN JAPAN AS POWER UTILITIES IN THRALL TO LOW-COST FUEL - REUTERS
Japanese utilities will rely on the return of coal-fired power plants from maintenance to meet peak electricity demand this summer, highlighting th ...
Tuesday, 16 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA WAS SPLIT, WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE AND LACK OF ENQUIRY IN THE NORTH - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a Brazilian affair with a strong splash of bunkers characterising the Capesize market over the past week. Largely traded in Eur ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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