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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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