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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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