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Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
 Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch Ratings says. We have revised down the National Balancing Point (NBP) gas price assumptions as we now anticipate a slower recovery in European natural gas prices due to a supply glut in the LNG market and slower economic growth prospects globally.
Oil prices spiked in the aftermath of the attacks in Saudi Arabia, but have since subsided. According to media reports, Saudi Aramco has made progress in restoring production, although we assume full recovery of capacity to levels available pre-attack could take time. We believe that disruptions ultimately will have a limited impact on the supply-demand balance this year, especially as the market remains otherwise well-supplied. We have kept our price deck assumption for Brent at USD65/bbl for 2019, though we expect volatility to remain significant in 4Q19, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
The attack highlighted the vulnerability of oil-producing infrastructure, not only in Saudi Arabia, but also elsewhere in the Middle East, although it has not caused us to change our fundamental view on the sector. An escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region, such as further attacks or a military conflict, could lead to higher prices, at least temporarily, due to the effect on the physical market or a 'geopolitical premium'.
Fitch Ratings further noted that, Fitch Ratings still assumes an average Brent price to be marginally lower at USD62.5/bbl in 2020 compared to 2019, due to waning demand and increased supply from continued US shale growth and recovered production in Saudi Arabia. However, we also expect OPEC+ to manage supply to avoid large surpluses or deficits. In 2020, the coming into force of International Maritime Organization Sulphur 2020 regulation could support demand for Brent and WTI, which are low-sulphur oil grades. The long-term price of USD57.5/bbl for Brent takes into account our view on the marginal costs of oil production.
Fitch Ratings lowered their NBP prices for 2019-2021. European spot natural gas prices collapsed in 1Q19. Increased supply from new LNG plants in the US and elsewhere was not matched by sufficient demand growth. In 9M19 the NBP price averaged USD4.7/mcf, compared with USD8.1/mcf in 9M18. Furthermore, the daily closing price has fluctuated between USD2.4 and USD3.9/mcf since the beginning of August. Prices are likely to rise in 4Q19 when the heating season starts. However, we expect the recovery to be slow given unusually high volumes of gas accumulated in European underground storage facilities and slowing demand.
According to latest report, Fitch Ratings believes that re-balancing in the gas market may take longer than we had anticipated primarily due to lower Chinese growth. China was the major driver for LNG demand and accounted for 48% of global demand growth over the past five years (2014-2018), followed by Europe (19%) and India (12%), according to BP. However, Chinese LNG demand may wane because of slowing economic growth amid the US-China trade war. China's authorities expect its annual gas consumption growth to decelerate to 10% yoy in 2019 from 17.5% in 2018.
According Fitch Ratings recent repot, the Fitch Ratings's long-term view on NBP is unchanged. While more active LNG trade is likely to result in narrower differentials between various hubs, we believe the USD3.75/mcf spread between Henry Hub and NBP we currently assume in the long-term assumptions is reasonable and accounts for full-cycle costs of delivering natural gas from the US to Europe.
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Monday, 21 October 19
SHIPPERS CHANGE COURSE AS FUEL RULES TARGET SULPHUR EMISSIONS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the industry’s regulator, will require all ships to reduce the level of sulphur in their engin ...
Monday, 21 October 19
COAL TO PLAY SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN SOUTH AFRICA POWER MIX - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
South Africa’s plans for additional power generation over the next decade will involve a variety of energy sources, with coal still playing a ...
Monday, 21 October 19
ULTRAMAX: IN ASIA, TRIPS FROM THE SINGAPORE AREA WERE PAYING BETWEEN $14,000 AND $16,000, DEPENDING ON THE VESSEL SIZE AND DURATION - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market traded in a relatively stable supported manner in the Pacific this week while the Atlantic experienced weakening turbulence ...
Friday, 18 October 19
WHY CRUDE TANKER RATES JUST FELL (HALFWAY) BACK TO EARTH - FREIGHT WAVES
Panic drove crude-tanker rates up, very briefly, to mind-bogglingly high assessed levels of around $300,000 per day. Now, the fear factor has been ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SHORT TERM STRENGTH FOR OZ COMMODITIES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Volatility in the global commodity markets is not expected to unduly rattle Australia’s commodity outlook through 2020, but the 2021 picture ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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