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Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
 Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch Ratings says. We have revised down the National Balancing Point (NBP) gas price assumptions as we now anticipate a slower recovery in European natural gas prices due to a supply glut in the LNG market and slower economic growth prospects globally.
Oil prices spiked in the aftermath of the attacks in Saudi Arabia, but have since subsided. According to media reports, Saudi Aramco has made progress in restoring production, although we assume full recovery of capacity to levels available pre-attack could take time. We believe that disruptions ultimately will have a limited impact on the supply-demand balance this year, especially as the market remains otherwise well-supplied. We have kept our price deck assumption for Brent at USD65/bbl for 2019, though we expect volatility to remain significant in 4Q19, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
The attack highlighted the vulnerability of oil-producing infrastructure, not only in Saudi Arabia, but also elsewhere in the Middle East, although it has not caused us to change our fundamental view on the sector. An escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region, such as further attacks or a military conflict, could lead to higher prices, at least temporarily, due to the effect on the physical market or a 'geopolitical premium'.
Fitch Ratings further noted that, Fitch Ratings still assumes an average Brent price to be marginally lower at USD62.5/bbl in 2020 compared to 2019, due to waning demand and increased supply from continued US shale growth and recovered production in Saudi Arabia. However, we also expect OPEC+ to manage supply to avoid large surpluses or deficits. In 2020, the coming into force of International Maritime Organization Sulphur 2020 regulation could support demand for Brent and WTI, which are low-sulphur oil grades. The long-term price of USD57.5/bbl for Brent takes into account our view on the marginal costs of oil production.
Fitch Ratings lowered their NBP prices for 2019-2021. European spot natural gas prices collapsed in 1Q19. Increased supply from new LNG plants in the US and elsewhere was not matched by sufficient demand growth. In 9M19 the NBP price averaged USD4.7/mcf, compared with USD8.1/mcf in 9M18. Furthermore, the daily closing price has fluctuated between USD2.4 and USD3.9/mcf since the beginning of August. Prices are likely to rise in 4Q19 when the heating season starts. However, we expect the recovery to be slow given unusually high volumes of gas accumulated in European underground storage facilities and slowing demand.
According to latest report, Fitch Ratings believes that re-balancing in the gas market may take longer than we had anticipated primarily due to lower Chinese growth. China was the major driver for LNG demand and accounted for 48% of global demand growth over the past five years (2014-2018), followed by Europe (19%) and India (12%), according to BP. However, Chinese LNG demand may wane because of slowing economic growth amid the US-China trade war. China's authorities expect its annual gas consumption growth to decelerate to 10% yoy in 2019 from 17.5% in 2018.
According Fitch Ratings recent repot, the Fitch Ratings's long-term view on NBP is unchanged. While more active LNG trade is likely to result in narrower differentials between various hubs, we believe the USD3.75/mcf spread between Henry Hub and NBP we currently assume in the long-term assumptions is reasonable and accounts for full-cycle costs of delivering natural gas from the US to Europe.
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Thursday, 24 October 19
AUSTRALIA'S HOPES TO EXPAND COAL EXPORTS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA 'DELUSIONAL', EXPERTS SAY - THE GUARDIAN
The number of new coal-fired power plants starting construction across south-east Asia has fallen markedly over the past two years as Australia has ...
Thursday, 24 October 19
PANAMAX: NEGATIVE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The market has continued to slide the last week, as lack of fresh requirements and a slight oversupply of tonnage heading towards Sout ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
CHINA'S 2019 COAL IMPORTS SET TO RISE MORE THAN 10%: ANALYSTS - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal buyer, is on track to boost imports of the fuel by more than 10% this year, traders and analysts said on Tuesday, ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Moving closer to the end of the year, we are facing what the market was expecting for quite a while, the ship repair sector booming with the shipya ...
Tuesday, 22 October 19
DRY BULK: DESPITE THE DOWNWARD CORRECTION NOTED OVER THE PAST MONTH, RATES ARE STILL HOLDING OFF AT FAVORABLE LEVELS - ALLIED SHIPPING
Despite the downward correction that has been noted in the dry bulk market over the past month, rates are still holding off at favorable levels. Ev ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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