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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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