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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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Showing 16 to 20 news of total 6871 |
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
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