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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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