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Wednesday, 10 April 19
CHINA'S GROWING THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO PRESSURE EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
 Growing Chinese thermal coal supply is likely to lead to further tightening of import controls by the government, putting pressure on seaborne coal prices and adding order uncertainties for exporters, Fitch Ratings and CRU say. Miners from Australian and Indonesia are the most exposed, but the credit impact is muted thanks to sufficient rating headroom as we have already incorporated a downward pricing trend in our rating assumptions.
The Chinese coal market’s tightness has eased due to a combination of weaker demand and improved domestic supplies. Chinese coal demand has declined as residential power consumption reduced at the end of the winter heating season in mid-March and hydro supply increased in south China due to heavy rains. Chinese domestic coal supply has gradually improved in recent quarters as the pace of capacity closures has slowed and incremental capacity has been expedited to bring down fuel costs, according to CRU. Inventories at the six main power producing groups edged up to 16.0 million tonnes in late March, 13% higher than the average for 2018 of 14.1 million tonnes.
Growing domestic supply is likely to prompt the Chinese government to tighten control over thermal coal imports. This would imply higher order volatility and risks for seaborne coal suppliers targeting the Chinese market, which are mainly miners in Australia and Indonesia. The Chinese government appears to have adopted an on-and-off importing policy since 2017 by implementing stricter checks when domestic supply is sufficient and speeding up clearing when domestic supply is tight. Australian coal cargoes, for example, have been facing increasing delays clearing customs at Chinese ports since February, according to CRU.
While seaborne coal remains price competitive compared to domestic coal, risks of long clearing time and import bans may discourage Chinese consumers from using seaborne coal, especially when domestic supply is sufficient.
Australian coal producers are likely to face the risk of order cancellation, and to some degree, be forced to compete for sales in alternative countries. This may lead to weak prices in the seaborne market, especially for the mid-content-value coal of around 5,500kcal/kg that Chinese importers typically buy from Australia.
Imports from Indonesia have been less affected by the recent Chinese controls, according to press reports, although Indonesian producers are still likely to come under pressure to find new markets due to overall declining Chinese demand for seaborne coal, as well as increasing Indonesian domestic output, and weaker-than-expected domestic demand.
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Friday, 27 August 21
THE ECONOMICS OF INDONESIA’S DIESEL POWER PLANT TO GAS CONVERSION PLAN ARE PROBLEMATIC - IEEFA
Deploying new small-scale LNG is an uphill battle for PGN
Indonesian gas is currently in a precarious position, where the government needs to ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
INDIA IMPORTED 17.06 MLN TONNES OF LPG IN 2020; UP 11.5% Y-O-Y
Global LPG trade remained fairly positive in 2020, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19, and surged strongly in the first half of 2021. ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
24th of August 2021, the Baltic Dry Index reached 4,201, a YTD high and the highest since May 2010.
Cape 5TC daily average @ 51,472
...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
COAL PRICE RALLY TO PRESSURE CHINESE POWER GENCOS’ MARGINS FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the pressure on Chinese power generation companies’ (gencos) profit from the recent coal price surge to weaken their cr ...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
TIGHT POWER SUPPLY IN CHINA AMID STRONG DEMAND, HIGH COAL PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
China experienced tight power supply in 1H21 on stronger than expected power demand as economic activity continued to recover, Fitch Ratings says i ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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