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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has be ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
Tuesday, 19 February 19
AUSTRALIA'S COAL FUTURE UNDER THREAT AS MORE CHANGES HIT FOSSIL FUELS GLOBALLY - ABC
Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia’s coal industry.
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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