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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has be ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
Tuesday, 19 February 19
AUSTRALIA'S COAL FUTURE UNDER THREAT AS MORE CHANGES HIT FOSSIL FUELS GLOBALLY - ABC
Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia’s coal industry.
...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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