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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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