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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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