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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
Tuesday, 19 February 19
AUSTRALIA'S COAL FUTURE UNDER THREAT AS MORE CHANGES HIT FOSSIL FUELS GLOBALLY - ABC
Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia’s coal industry.
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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