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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
Tuesday, 19 February 19
AUSTRALIA'S COAL FUTURE UNDER THREAT AS MORE CHANGES HIT FOSSIL FUELS GLOBALLY - ABC
Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia’s coal industry.
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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