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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 11 March 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 DWT VESSEL WAS BOOKED SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO CHINA AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A faint glimmer of hope with the suggestion the market may have finally bottomed out, with owners attempting to resist further cuts in ...
Friday, 08 March 19
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 2.6 MILLION TONS OF AUSTRALIAN 5700 NAR COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origin to be burnt ...
Friday, 08 March 19
CHINA'S COAL DEMAND FORECAST TO DROP SLOWLY - YONHAP
China’s coal demand is expected to fall at a snail’s pace over the next 20 years due to the country’s preference for the cheap fo ...
Thursday, 07 March 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TO LOWEST IN SEVEN MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 80,000 MT OF 3800 NCV COAL FOR 21 - 30 MARCH, 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 80,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calor ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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